Spring Training is over finally! Opening Day is just around the corner. It is time to really focus in on the upcoming season.
As always, the Blue Jays are in tough this season in the American League East Division. You have your usual powerhouses of New York and Boston who are going to be strong again this year. Then there is the Tampa Bay “Don’t Call Us Devil” Rays coming off a playoff season in 2011 and look to be an improved club in 2012.
There is an extra wild card spot available in 2012 which has raised hopes for Blue Jays fans but even with an extra playoff spot, the Blue Jays will have to have a lot of things go right to be in contention. Outside the East you have two big teams in the AL West in the back-to-back American League champions, the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Pujols of Anaheim (Angels). Then in the Central you have the home of the hefty infielders in the Detroit Tigers. In my opinion, these are the six teams that have the inside track at the playoffs (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Angels).
In all honesty, I don’t see the team making the playoffs this year. That’s not to say I’m not excited for this team and the 2012 season, I just think they face an uphill battle this year and a lot of things have to go right for the playoffs to be a consideration. I really this team is built to start contending in 2013 and beyond. However, I’ve been known to be wrong (ask my wife) and unlike last year I do not have to look at the Blue Jays lineup and see Juan Rivera in right field, Edwin Encarnacion starting at third base, Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch as the team’s closer and a starting rotation featuring Jo-Jo Reyes. The 2012 Blue Jays could possibly avoid being the best fourth place team in baseball and push “The Big Six” for a playoff spot but as I mentioned earlier, a lot of things have to go right.
In my humble opinion, here are the top five keys to the Blue Jays contending this year:
1. The best players need to continue being their best players: Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero need to perform to their abilities this year. Any down season for either of these players would be extremely tough to overcome. I’m not saying that Jose has to duplicate the monster season he had last year but a season where he has an OPS of 1.000 (.600 slugging, .400 OBP) will be no small feat but that’s the type of production the Jays need from him barring any breakout seasons from others in the lineup. Ricky needs to continue to be the team’s ace, pitch 200 plus innings and have a WHIP close to his 2011 total of 1.15.
2. Protection for Jose Bautista: Without any protection in the number 4 and 5 spots in the batting order, teams simply will not pitch to Jose Bautista. This is taking the bat out of the hands of MLB’s home run leader the past two seasons. This is not good. Someone has to step up and provide another middle of the order threat. Right now the spot light is on Adam Lind who looks to start the season in the #4 slot in the lineup and Edwin Encarnacion who will be in the fifth spot. Personally, I don’t think Lind is the right fit in the number four spot. Right now, I think Encarnacion has the most promise in the four spot with Lawrie moving the fifth spot. However, given that Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie all bat from the right side, John Farrell is not likely to have Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie grouped together in the lineup so Adam Lind will need to produce.
3. Brandon Morrow: We’ve been hearing how Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter and has the best ‘stuff’ on the team. He had an impressive 2010 campaign, his first as a Blue Jay, and was pegged to have a breakout season in 2011. However, 2011 was a struggle filled with inconsistent starts and early exits from ball games. Morrow is optimistic about 2012 and has mentioned that he has figured out what his approach should be on the mound. He’s going to focus on being more efficient (i.e. pitching to contact) and lasting deeper into ballgames. The Blue Jays need him to be a legitimate #2 starter if they have any hopes of contending in 2012.
4. Emergence of Young Stars: I’m focussing here on Brett Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez. Lawrie made a huge splash in 2011 and needs to continue to emerge as an impact, all-star calibre player for the Blue Jays in 2012. It looks as if he’s ready to do so as he picked up where he left off last September this spring. Can Lawrie play up to the level he did in 2011 over the course of an entire 162 game season? How well will he adjust to the adjustments AL pitchers are surely going to try and make as they get more familiar with the young Canadian? If all goes well, Lawrie could make a good Blue Jays offense a great one.
Based on his spring results and what we saw in late 2011, Henderson Alvarez appears to be poised to have an impressive 2012 campaign. If he does that will go a long way in solidifying the Blue Jays rotation giving them a solid top three (even if Alvarez is technically the #4 starter).
Although I focussed on Lawrie and Alvarez, the Blue Jays feature a number of young players who could take the next step forward in their development and contribute significantly a strong season. J.P. Arencibia is coming into his second full season as the Blue Jays’ starting catcher and if he can figure out how to reach base a little more, he can build on the impressive power numbers he put up in 2011. Kyle Drabek seems to have learned from a disastrous 2011 campaign and appears to be back on track. He possibly could be a mainstay in the rotation in 2012 given the door has swung wide open for him with Brett Cecil being sent to AA New Hampshire. Of course there is also Eric Thames who is the Blue Jays starting left fielder to start the season. He seems to have a mature approach at the plate and clearly is in great physical shape. Can he consistently produce? Or if he doesn’t, does Travis Snider finally establish himself as an everyday big leaguer?
I should also mention the much maligned Colby Rasmus who seems to have been labelled by an alarming number of Blue Jays fans as a bust and a malcontent despite only a brief time with the club in 2011. If Rasmus can find his 2010 (and early 2011) form, he can put up some big numbers and endear himself to the Blue Jays faithful. Of course if he goes 0 for 4 on Opening Day in Cleveland, fans will start asking when the Blue Jays are going to call up Anthony Gose which I find absolutely ridiculous.
5. The Bullpen:
The bullpen, especially the back end of the bullpen was much maligned in 2011. Exit stage left: Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Shawn Camp. Enter: Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver and Jason Frasor (again). Add to that the incumbents, Janssen, Villenueva, and Luis Perez and Blue Jays fans should see a much improved bullpen. Now a good bullpen on paper doesn’t always guarantee performance but if this bullpen performs, it will go a long way to the Blue Jays improving on their win total from 2011. Sergio Santos bringing stability to the closer’s role will be key.
There, of course will be other factors that I’ve not included such as the ability of the team to stay healthy and consistent performance from the back end of the rotation (4,5 starters) etc. that will also determine the Blue Jays success in 2012 but the above represent solely what I think will be the most significant factors in the success of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012. Now can we watch some real baseball please???
What I’m Listening To: As a recurring feature in my blog posts, I like to let the readers know what music I’m listening to while writing my blog. This week it’s Chris Cornell’s Songbook. This is a live acoustic album from recorded on his 2011 tour of the same name. Cornell is best known as the lead singer for the recently reformed Soundgarden as well as the former lead singer for Audioslave. The album features acoustic versions of some Soundgarden hits, his other solo releases, covers and even a Temple of the Dog song. I consider Cornell one of the best rock/alternative/grunge vocalists of his time and this album did not disappoint.
For this week’s post, I had planned on doing a piece on what spots on the roster were actually still undecided besides left field. I noticed on Twitter that an surprising number of people were posing questions to the likes of Sportsnet Radio’s Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) , and well known bloggers Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb) and Drunk Jays Fans (@drunkjaysfans) regarding the chances of certain players making the opening day roster. Questions such as:
What are the chances of Anthony Gose making the team in 2012?
Why don’t the Jays put Snider in centre and Thames in left?
I don’t see why the Jays don’t just move Escobar to second and play Hechevarria at short!
Can Snider or Thames play first base?
The first two questions to anyone who follows this team closely are quite easy to answer. Colby Rasmus is the Blue Jays’ centre fielder in 2012. Gose will be spending his 2012 in Vegas. Why people think Gose is a better option in centre having never played an inning in the majors is beyond me. Yes he’s fast and a plus defender but he’s at least a year away from being ready for the Show. Barring injury, you won’t see Gose playing for the Jays this summer. He’s a prime candidate for a September call-up but the Blue Jays have no need to rush him and remember that Colby Rasmus fellow???
The second question is also an emphatic NO!!! Again, this Colby Rasmus fellow who everybody was thrilled to see the Blue Jays acquire last season is the Blue Jays’ centrefielder. Yes both Eric and Travis are having fine springs but one of them is going to start the year in Las Vegas. It’s probably going to be Travis but I discussed that in my last post so I won’t go into any further detail as to why I think this to be the case.
As for the third statement, similar to Gose, the Blue Jays have no reason to rush Adeiny Hechevarria. From all accounts, Hechevarria is already an elite defender and major league ready with his glove. However, he is very much a work and progress at the dish. He’s improving at the plate and is apparently much stronger this spring then he was at the end of the season last year but he still needs time to develop. Again, the Blue Jays have a shortstop and second baseman in place for 2012; Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson.
Again for the fourth question, the answer is ‘NO’. It’s not that Snider and Thames can’t play first base it’s just that the Blue Jays have Adam Lind slated to play first. If that fails then you’ll see Edwin Encarnacion try his hand there and if E5 turns into E3 then you’ll likely see David Cooper get a shot. There is no chance the Blue Jays would throw Snider or Thames at first in 2012. It is conceivable I suppose that the Blue Jays might consider converting one of them to a first baseman in 2013 but I find that rather unlikely.
This brings me to the main subject of this post and that is who will be the Blue Jays fans’ whipping boy in 2012? In 2011, the Vernon Wells trade presented us Juan Rivera on a silver platter. His struggles at the plate and his total lack of speed did nothing to help Mr. Rivera’s cause and mercifully, the Blue Jays dealt him to the Dodgers in June. The fan’s ire then shifted fully to the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen where Jason Frasor, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco drew heat for a multitude of late inning meltdowns.
Given the fan’s attention in Spring, I think it’s pretty clear that the prime candidates for whipping boy 2012 are, in no particular order: Colby Rasmus, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind.
I don’t get why some fans have given up on Rasmus already. My best guess is that these are Blue Jays fans that watch the Blue Jays and only the Blue Jays and see Rasmus as a player with an attitude problem who only batted .173 with 3 homeruns as a Blue Jay. They don’t see the five-tool player with a huge upside who had an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of .859 and 23 homeruns in 2010 as a 24 year old. In 2011, the kid got run out of St. Louis by Tony LaRussa who then proceeded to throw him under a bus after the trade to Toronto. He got to Toronto and then dealt with a wrist injury and only got in 35 games. Hardly time to give up on a player this young and with this much upside. That being said, if Rasmus gets off to a slow start, you’ll see fans calling for the Jays to play Snider or Gose in centre.
Kelly Johnson was another player who had a really rough 2011 season and has Blue Jays questioning whether he should be the team’s second baseman. However, given that the previous everyday second baseman for the Blue Jays who the Jays traded to get Johnson was having an equally bad 2011 (and a brutal 2010 for that matter), a change of scenery could bode well for both Johnson and Hill. Johnson is only signed to a one year deal so fans won’t resent him for his contract but again may be the target of fan’s ire simply because some fans don’t want to wait for Hechevarria.
Then there is Mr. Adam Lind. Lind had a great 2009 season. A breakout year for Mr. Lind. Then came 2010 where as the team’s DH, he struggled mightily with an OBP of a mere .287. Some writers pointed to the fact that he was a DH at such a young age and had to dwell all game over his failures at the plate as a reason for such a drop-off from 2010. The 2011 season was supposed to be a comeback season for Adam given that he was back to a full-time defensive player. Despite a promising start to the year, he again put up horrific numbers batting .251 and an on-base percentage of .295. He did put up 26 homeruns and 87 RBIs but given first base is generally a power position, these numbers don’t hold water. This kind of production is also not acceptable for a team’s #4 hitter who is supposed to provide protection to one of baseball’s premier power hitters in Jose Bautista. There is a reason why Bautista led the majors in walks last season. If you want to really put how bad Adam Lind’s numbers were in 2011, just look at his Wins Above Replacement of 0.7 and compare that with those players that played 50% of their games at 1B last season and had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. He ranks 18 out of 20. To me, this is the guy who is going to be your whipping boy for 2012 Blue Jays fans. He’s had two consecutive bad seasons, he’s the player who is supposed to be providing protection for the Jays’ best hitter and he’s the guy who was quoted this spring as saying that he’s ‘not much of a workout guy’ and still doesn’t like it but now knows he has to work out and is willing to put in the twenty minutes a day he believes is necessary. Maybe he’ll return to his 2009 form but all signs are pointing to another rough season. I just hope that if he does struggle, John Farrell has enough sense to take him out of the lineup or at least move him down in the order.
PANIC! The Blue Jays did not score any runs in their first two spring games against the Tigers and finally broke through in the seventh inning yesterday against the Phillies!
Actually there is nothing to panic about. It’s spring training and it’s early. If this was the last week of March and the Blue Jays, with many of their regulars in the lineup, were getting routinely shut out there might be cause for concern. Right now, the boys are just getting their at-bats in, getting used to facing actual pitchers again and figuring out what golf course they’re playing later that day (well everyone except for Travis Snider) or what they’ll be having for that night (especially Travis Snider).
What has caught my interest over the first three games is the battle for the final two rotation spots. Litsch and Rzepczynski both pitched well in their first spring outings and Jo-Jo Reyes struggled a bit yesterday against the Phils. The Jays defence kicked the ball around a bit yesterday (five errors) so it’s tough to pin the runs the Phillies scored on the pitchers. Kyle Drabek was scratched from his start yesterday due to a stiff neck so he’ll get the call on Saturday.
Mike Wilner of the FAN 590 in Toronto seems to think that Drabek is going to start the year in Vegas and get called up in May to delay his free agency by a year. The same applies to Zach Stewart. Thus, one can deduce that Wilner thinks the battle for the final two rotation spots is between Reyes, Litsch and Rzepczynski. I think if one follows this line of logic of letting contract status be a deciding factor a little further, given Reyes is out of options, he would be the favourite for the fourth spot with the fifth spot being a battle between Rzepczynski and Litsch.
Now when I start seeing the Jays beat writers and other media members start making the same type of assumptions and conclusions about players and say its “just a hunch”, makes me think that they’ve heard from someone in the organization who has given them some insider information but either that the information can be substantiated or the source has told them to keep it quiet. If it comes to be true, it gives the writer credibility and makes him/her look intelligent and if it doesn’t nobody really remembers because it was just a ‘hunch’ they had. Now I have zero experience as a member of the media so I could be completely off base with this observation.
The other interesting storyline thus far this spring is how the Jays top prospects are making out. From all I’ve read, Anthony Gose is turning heads with his speed, Adeiny Hechavarria is impressing with his defence and Brett Lawrie is proving capable at third base. Manager John Farrell has stated that Gose and Hechavarria are playing major league calibre defence at this point in their young careers and just now have to mature at the plate. Lawrie has yet to record a hit but again not many other Jays have recorded many hits at this point!
The prospect that has piqued my interest the most simply because I didn’t know too much about him is Eric Thames. Thames was in New Hampshire last season and tied for second in the Eastern League in homeruns with 27. He was drafted in the 7th round in the 2008 draft but according to www.jaysprospects.com he slipped down in the draft over concerns of an injury to his quad that he suffered prior to the draft. Thames has only recorded on hit in five at bats thus far but that one hit was a triple yesterday against the Phillies. He looks to be getting a strong look this Spring Training by Jays management just to see how close Thames is to being major league ready. He’ll likely start the year in AAA or maybe AA as there is no room in the Jays outfield at the moment. However, he is likely a candidate for a September call-up or possibly sooner if injuries strike.
If you’re interested at all in reading about Jays prospects, as I clearly focus on the major league level and don’t have too much knowledge of what is going on in the minors, I would suggest checking out www.jaysprospects.com . Through Twitter, I have been discovering all kinds of interesting Blue Jays blogs and sites. There are also a lot of Jays players and prospects and beat writers on Twitter who tweet regularly so if you’re a baseball fan or Blue Jays fan, I strongly suggest opening a Twitter account.
The excitement over the start of Spring Training is still lingering but we really need some games to start. Pitchers and Catchers have reported, and now the position players are in camp. There are nice stories coming out on new contracts (Bautista), top prospects experiencing their first spring training (Hechevarria) or with the Blue Jays (Lawrie, Gose), John Farrell at the helm for his first Spring Training and players adapting to new roles and fighting for roster spots.
The news broke last night that the Blue Jays had reached agreement on a five-year, $65M contract with Jose Bautista. Although, it hasn’t been formally announced yet, given that multiple sources are reporting this, it’s likely a done deal. It is expected to be announced sometime today (Thursday).
I’m not sure what to think about this deal. It’s risky that is for sure. I was hoping the Blue Jays would aim for a 3 to 4 year deal for about $10 to $12M per year but five years. The $13M per year is on the higher end of the spectrum but it’s not Jason Werth money thank goodness. It’s in the neighbourhood of Dan Uggla’s deal with the Braves and that appeared to be the benchmark that both sides were working from. Uggla, of course, has a larger body of work to judge his value from than Mr. Bautista but is definitely not paid for his glove. Jose Bautista is a fine defender with a plus arm who can play several positions well.
As I mentioned in a previous post, if Bautista hits near the mid-point between his previous career high of 16 homeruns or his 2010 total of 54 homeruns (about 35HRs) and drive in 100+ RBI’s a year, this deal will turn out to be a relative bargain for the Blue Jays. He’s not getting Vernon Wells money and he is certainly nowhere close to getting Jason Werth money ($126M over seven years).
It’s a risky deal but it’s not going to break the bank for the Blue Jays. Not only did Bautista have a break out year in 2010, he emerged as a clubhouse and on-field leader and was superb defensively. I personally think he’s better in right field than third base but given the Jays’ depth in the outfield, and lack thereof at third until Mr. Lawrie is ready for the show, he is best positioned to help the team in 2011 at third.
My biggest fear is that Jose tries too hard to live up to the contract and pushes too hard and ends up struggling at the dish. That will bring out all of the negative Nancys and boo-birds at the Rogers Centre and stir up more talk about PEDs. The PED talk is nonsense if you ask me. One, he’s not a big guy and his appearance didn’t change from one year to the next. Second, if he was able to use PEDs last season and not get caught, then why would he not continue to do so in 2011 and put up the same numbers?
Regardless it will be an interesting 2011. The Jays’ lineup has the potential to be a very potent one if Adam Lind and Aaron Hill bounce back from a rough 2010, Bautista produces and Travis Snider is able to have a breakout season. J.P. Arencibia will be interesting to watch. He has the potential to put up numbers in the neighbourhood of John Buck’s last year but as a rookie, he may also struggle while he faces major league pitching and tries to manage a young pitching staff.
Well since my last post last week regarding rumours that Carlos Pena was a target of the Blue Jays, a lot has happened.
It’s been a long time since my last entry, a really long time! What can I say, I lost my will to put the time into making this a quality blog. I found I was either going into too much detail about non-baseball related issues or getting too emotional after a Jays’ loss and ranting and/or calling players, coaches managers out for plays or decisions I did not agree with.
My wife also gave birth to my first child sixteen months ago and I found that between work and being a new parent, there just wasn’t enough time to make this a worthwhile blog.
But I’m inspired again and so I’m going to start posting. Where to begin…
The 2010 Season
I must say that despite the fourth place finish, I loved watching the Blue Jays this season. The team took a new direction with Alex Anthopolous at the helm and the team was exciting to watch again. We, as fans, knew the Blue Jays were not going to be playoff bound and the organization did nothing to try and heighten expectations in efforts to sell tickets which was refreshing.
What A.A. did was develop a plan for making this team perennially competitive. Now, given the former GM of the Blue Jays, I’m wary of any so-called ‘plans’ and the ability of a GM to stick to said ‘plans’. Where I think AA is different from his predecessor is instead of spending a lot of time talking about his plan, he got busy implementing it and building the team through the draft and trades rather than free agency. This is the only way to get high-end talent that can be controlled for up to six years given the current free-agency and arbitration rules under the CBA. When the team is a contender, you can use free agency or a trade deadline deal to fill some holes in your lineup. All and all a great approach in my humble opinion. I expected nothing less from a fellow McMaster Economics grad!
I loved the League for Morrow trade the minute it was made and I’m being honest, seriously. I wish I could find the e-mail I sent to my friend, Greg when this trade was made as I was very enthusiastic about this trade. One, I was not a big fan of Brandon League. I had grown impatient with him and didn’t see him developing into a closer like people were projecting him to be. I just don’t think he has the mental make-up to be anything more than an effective late-inning reliever or set-up man. His control and consistency just aren’t there to be a closer. That being said, I thought being trading a reliever for a starter was brilliant even if Morrow had struggled to find a place in the Mariners’ rotation. Now Morrow looked to be a top of the rotation guy and possible Ace of this staff.
The starting pitching was the big question mark going into the season and well we all know it turned out to be the team’s strength. Shaun Marcum had a strong season coming off Tommy John surgery and was the leader of the young staff. Ricky Romero continued to develop as a top of the rotation guy and seems to have the mental makeup to pitch in big games. Brett Cecil was phenomenal given the fact that he didn’t even break camp with the team. I mentioned Morrow’s success earlier. The only hole in the rotation was the number five spot. Jesse Litsch struggled to return to form after off-season surgery and was never able to stick in the rotation and then was shut down after hip injury required surgery. Brad Mills made a few starts and had some success but he doesn’t appear to be in the Jays’ long-term plans. Kyle Drabek, the Jays top prospect, showed in September that he may be ready to step into that role in 2011.
The bullpen was for the most part a disappointment. Jason Frasor, who now mysteriously as a free agent is being called by most “one of the Jays more reliable bullpen arms” was a train wreck coming out of Spring Training as the team’s closer. He never really regained his form from 2009 but was still marched out there regularly by Cito. Kevin Gregg put up some save numbers as the team’s closer but he by no means made it look easy. Many a time I had to turn the channel for a few minutes because I could not bear to watch Gregg struggle through another 9th inning to eek out a save. Brian Tallet was horrific this year in any role they used him in. Scott Downs was his usual self so no complaints there. He has his usual ups and downs (excuse the pun) but was reliable. Casey Janssen also struggled for most of the season and was reduced to spot duty most nights unless one of the late inning guys couldn’t go. Shawn Camp and David Purcey were probably the nicest surprises of 2010 in the Jays bullpen. Camp was consistent and reliable and Purcey seems to have found his niche after control issues seem to put his career as a starter to an end. To me this is an area the team must upgrade for 2011 and this could be done through a few strategic signings/trades.
The offense hit bombs and more bombs but couldn’t hit for average or get on base consistently. It was pretty one dimensional but still fun to watch as baseballs flew out of the park on a regular basis. However a key players from 2009 like Aaron Hill and Adam Lind struggled for much of the year. Travis Snider struggled out of the gate and then when he started to heat up, he got injured. Lyle Overbay also struggled mightily at times. Vernon Wells had a bounce back season but even he struggled through some slumps at key points in the season. Jose Bautista came out of nowhere and led the major leagues in homeruns. This was impressive but what was more impressive was the fact he did this while being bounced from the infield to the outfield and back again throughout the season but all the while playing stellar defense. He also emerged as a leader on the field. He showed a lot of fire and refused to be intimidated or back down from pitchers throwing inside. It was great to watch and I hope Jose can put up similar numbers in 2011 to avoid the talk of him being a ‘flash in the pan’. Unfortunately the stigma of PEDs will not go away I’m afraid but I for one think Jose is legit and don’t have any reason to think otherwise.