Spring Training is over finally! Opening Day is just around the corner. It is time to really focus in on the upcoming season.
As always, the Blue Jays are in tough this season in the American League East Division. You have your usual powerhouses of New York and Boston who are going to be strong again this year. Then there is the Tampa Bay “Don’t Call Us Devil” Rays coming off a playoff season in 2011 and look to be an improved club in 2012.
There is an extra wild card spot available in 2012 which has raised hopes for Blue Jays fans but even with an extra playoff spot, the Blue Jays will have to have a lot of things go right to be in contention. Outside the East you have two big teams in the AL West in the back-to-back American League champions, the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Pujols of Anaheim (Angels). Then in the Central you have the home of the hefty infielders in the Detroit Tigers. In my opinion, these are the six teams that have the inside track at the playoffs (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Angels).
In all honesty, I don’t see the team making the playoffs this year. That’s not to say I’m not excited for this team and the 2012 season, I just think they face an uphill battle this year and a lot of things have to go right for the playoffs to be a consideration. I really this team is built to start contending in 2013 and beyond. However, I’ve been known to be wrong (ask my wife) and unlike last year I do not have to look at the Blue Jays lineup and see Juan Rivera in right field, Edwin Encarnacion starting at third base, Frank Francisco/Jon Rauch as the team’s closer and a starting rotation featuring Jo-Jo Reyes. The 2012 Blue Jays could possibly avoid being the best fourth place team in baseball and push “The Big Six” for a playoff spot but as I mentioned earlier, a lot of things have to go right.
In my humble opinion, here are the top five keys to the Blue Jays contending this year:
1. The best players need to continue being their best players: Jose Bautista and Ricky Romero need to perform to their abilities this year. Any down season for either of these players would be extremely tough to overcome. I’m not saying that Jose has to duplicate the monster season he had last year but a season where he has an OPS of 1.000 (.600 slugging, .400 OBP) will be no small feat but that’s the type of production the Jays need from him barring any breakout seasons from others in the lineup. Ricky needs to continue to be the team’s ace, pitch 200 plus innings and have a WHIP close to his 2011 total of 1.15.
2. Protection for Jose Bautista: Without any protection in the number 4 and 5 spots in the batting order, teams simply will not pitch to Jose Bautista. This is taking the bat out of the hands of MLB’s home run leader the past two seasons. This is not good. Someone has to step up and provide another middle of the order threat. Right now the spot light is on Adam Lind who looks to start the season in the #4 slot in the lineup and Edwin Encarnacion who will be in the fifth spot. Personally, I don’t think Lind is the right fit in the number four spot. Right now, I think Encarnacion has the most promise in the four spot with Lawrie moving the fifth spot. However, given that Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie all bat from the right side, John Farrell is not likely to have Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie grouped together in the lineup so Adam Lind will need to produce.
3. Brandon Morrow: We’ve been hearing how Brandon Morrow has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter and has the best ‘stuff’ on the team. He had an impressive 2010 campaign, his first as a Blue Jay, and was pegged to have a breakout season in 2011. However, 2011 was a struggle filled with inconsistent starts and early exits from ball games. Morrow is optimistic about 2012 and has mentioned that he has figured out what his approach should be on the mound. He’s going to focus on being more efficient (i.e. pitching to contact) and lasting deeper into ballgames. The Blue Jays need him to be a legitimate #2 starter if they have any hopes of contending in 2012.
4. Emergence of Young Stars: I’m focussing here on Brett Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez. Lawrie made a huge splash in 2011 and needs to continue to emerge as an impact, all-star calibre player for the Blue Jays in 2012. It looks as if he’s ready to do so as he picked up where he left off last September this spring. Can Lawrie play up to the level he did in 2011 over the course of an entire 162 game season? How well will he adjust to the adjustments AL pitchers are surely going to try and make as they get more familiar with the young Canadian? If all goes well, Lawrie could make a good Blue Jays offense a great one.
Based on his spring results and what we saw in late 2011, Henderson Alvarez appears to be poised to have an impressive 2012 campaign. If he does that will go a long way in solidifying the Blue Jays rotation giving them a solid top three (even if Alvarez is technically the #4 starter).
Although I focussed on Lawrie and Alvarez, the Blue Jays feature a number of young players who could take the next step forward in their development and contribute significantly a strong season. J.P. Arencibia is coming into his second full season as the Blue Jays’ starting catcher and if he can figure out how to reach base a little more, he can build on the impressive power numbers he put up in 2011. Kyle Drabek seems to have learned from a disastrous 2011 campaign and appears to be back on track. He possibly could be a mainstay in the rotation in 2012 given the door has swung wide open for him with Brett Cecil being sent to AA New Hampshire. Of course there is also Eric Thames who is the Blue Jays starting left fielder to start the season. He seems to have a mature approach at the plate and clearly is in great physical shape. Can he consistently produce? Or if he doesn’t, does Travis Snider finally establish himself as an everyday big leaguer?
I should also mention the much maligned Colby Rasmus who seems to have been labelled by an alarming number of Blue Jays fans as a bust and a malcontent despite only a brief time with the club in 2011. If Rasmus can find his 2010 (and early 2011) form, he can put up some big numbers and endear himself to the Blue Jays faithful. Of course if he goes 0 for 4 on Opening Day in Cleveland, fans will start asking when the Blue Jays are going to call up Anthony Gose which I find absolutely ridiculous.
5. The Bullpen:
The bullpen, especially the back end of the bullpen was much maligned in 2011. Exit stage left: Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Shawn Camp. Enter: Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver and Jason Frasor (again). Add to that the incumbents, Janssen, Villenueva, and Luis Perez and Blue Jays fans should see a much improved bullpen. Now a good bullpen on paper doesn’t always guarantee performance but if this bullpen performs, it will go a long way to the Blue Jays improving on their win total from 2011. Sergio Santos bringing stability to the closer’s role will be key.
There, of course will be other factors that I’ve not included such as the ability of the team to stay healthy and consistent performance from the back end of the rotation (4,5 starters) etc. that will also determine the Blue Jays success in 2012 but the above represent solely what I think will be the most significant factors in the success of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012. Now can we watch some real baseball please???
What I’m Listening To: As a recurring feature in my blog posts, I like to let the readers know what music I’m listening to while writing my blog. This week it’s Chris Cornell’s Songbook. This is a live acoustic album from recorded on his 2011 tour of the same name. Cornell is best known as the lead singer for the recently reformed Soundgarden as well as the former lead singer for Audioslave. The album features acoustic versions of some Soundgarden hits, his other solo releases, covers and even a Temple of the Dog song. I consider Cornell one of the best rock/alternative/grunge vocalists of his time and this album did not disappoint.
PANIC! The Blue Jays did not score any runs in their first two spring games against the Tigers and finally broke through in the seventh inning yesterday against the Phillies!
Actually there is nothing to panic about. It’s spring training and it’s early. If this was the last week of March and the Blue Jays, with many of their regulars in the lineup, were getting routinely shut out there might be cause for concern. Right now, the boys are just getting their at-bats in, getting used to facing actual pitchers again and figuring out what golf course they’re playing later that day (well everyone except for Travis Snider) or what they’ll be having for that night (especially Travis Snider).
What has caught my interest over the first three games is the battle for the final two rotation spots. Litsch and Rzepczynski both pitched well in their first spring outings and Jo-Jo Reyes struggled a bit yesterday against the Phils. The Jays defence kicked the ball around a bit yesterday (five errors) so it’s tough to pin the runs the Phillies scored on the pitchers. Kyle Drabek was scratched from his start yesterday due to a stiff neck so he’ll get the call on Saturday.
Mike Wilner of the FAN 590 in Toronto seems to think that Drabek is going to start the year in Vegas and get called up in May to delay his free agency by a year. The same applies to Zach Stewart. Thus, one can deduce that Wilner thinks the battle for the final two rotation spots is between Reyes, Litsch and Rzepczynski. I think if one follows this line of logic of letting contract status be a deciding factor a little further, given Reyes is out of options, he would be the favourite for the fourth spot with the fifth spot being a battle between Rzepczynski and Litsch.
Now when I start seeing the Jays beat writers and other media members start making the same type of assumptions and conclusions about players and say its “just a hunch”, makes me think that they’ve heard from someone in the organization who has given them some insider information but either that the information can be substantiated or the source has told them to keep it quiet. If it comes to be true, it gives the writer credibility and makes him/her look intelligent and if it doesn’t nobody really remembers because it was just a ‘hunch’ they had. Now I have zero experience as a member of the media so I could be completely off base with this observation.
The other interesting storyline thus far this spring is how the Jays top prospects are making out. From all I’ve read, Anthony Gose is turning heads with his speed, Adeiny Hechavarria is impressing with his defence and Brett Lawrie is proving capable at third base. Manager John Farrell has stated that Gose and Hechavarria are playing major league calibre defence at this point in their young careers and just now have to mature at the plate. Lawrie has yet to record a hit but again not many other Jays have recorded many hits at this point!
The prospect that has piqued my interest the most simply because I didn’t know too much about him is Eric Thames. Thames was in New Hampshire last season and tied for second in the Eastern League in homeruns with 27. He was drafted in the 7th round in the 2008 draft but according to www.jaysprospects.com he slipped down in the draft over concerns of an injury to his quad that he suffered prior to the draft. Thames has only recorded on hit in five at bats thus far but that one hit was a triple yesterday against the Phillies. He looks to be getting a strong look this Spring Training by Jays management just to see how close Thames is to being major league ready. He’ll likely start the year in AAA or maybe AA as there is no room in the Jays outfield at the moment. However, he is likely a candidate for a September call-up or possibly sooner if injuries strike.
If you’re interested at all in reading about Jays prospects, as I clearly focus on the major league level and don’t have too much knowledge of what is going on in the minors, I would suggest checking out www.jaysprospects.com . Through Twitter, I have been discovering all kinds of interesting Blue Jays blogs and sites. There are also a lot of Jays players and prospects and beat writers on Twitter who tweet regularly so if you’re a baseball fan or Blue Jays fan, I strongly suggest opening a Twitter account.
Shaun Marcum was one of my favourite Blue Jays. He threw strikes, he battled, he is a gold glove calibre defender (was a shortstop in college) and a leader in the clubhouse. So needless to say, it’s tough to see him go. Thanks for everything Shaun and all the best in Milwaukee.
That being said, I like this deal. In return, the Blue Jays get the Brewers’ top prospect, Brett Lawrie. Lawrie, a Canadian, is a second baseman but the Fan 590’s Mike Wilner reports that the Jays see him more as a third baseman. Baseball America notes his defence at second is suspect and that he projects to a possible corner outfield slot. He’ll play 2011 in Triple A Las Vegas but could be in the Jays line-up come 2012. So another high level prospect to add to the system to accompany Drabek, D’Arnaud, Hechevarria, Gose, McGuire etc.
Giving up Marcum will hurt in 2011 but as Shaun Marcum himself will admit, he doesn’t have the greatest stuff. He has a below average fastball (tops out at 87 mph) but makes up for it with an above average change-up. He’ll be 29 years old next week and would be a free agent following the 2012 season. Do I think the Jays were actively shopping him? No. What I think is that the Brewers needed pitching and the Jays had their eye on Lawrie and it was going to cost them Marcum to get him. Of their starting rotation, the Jays were not going to give up Morrow, Romero or Cecil and I doubt they would get much of anything in return for either Litsch or Rzepcynski so Marcum was the player to go. So unless the Blue Jays aren’t done dealing the starting rotation looks something like this:
Litsch or Rzepcynski
There were rumours floating around that the Blue Jays were interested in acquiring Zack Greinke from Kansas City but the reported asking price was Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek. That’s a steep price for Greinke and doesn’t seem consistent with Alex Anthopolous’ vision for making this team a perennial contender. Buster Olney of ESPN “tweeted” today that the opinion among GMs around MLB is that Kansas City will start with a steep asking price for Greinke and gradually lessen their demands until they get a ‘yes’ from someone. They believe that Greinke will be dealt this winter.
And how about that Jason Werth deal with the Nationals! WOW! I couldn’t believe that news when I heard about it yesterday. To me this is going to be a huge mistake for Washington. That’s a lot of dollars and a lot of years for Jason Werth. There is no way he’s going to live up to that contract. Maybe he should have given Vernon Wells a call before signing this deal. I forsee many years of Mr. Werth getting blamed for tying up a large chunk of the Nationals’ payroll and under performing!
I’m anxious to hear all the rumours coming out of the Winter Meetings. Hopefully there will be some more trades of significance and some interesting free agent signings to discuss.
Until then, I bid you adieu!